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Seven years ago, it took just eight words to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance & Settled Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis of British politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo of 2018

All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an effort to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk and A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.